海容冷链草根调研更新： 1. 8月产量同比大幅增长,部分Q2疫情影响的订单开始回流，9月延续当前态 势。（公司运营模式按单生产发货，产量大，代表客户下单增加） 2. 2022 年收入目标 32 -34.5 亿元，预计完成难度不大。（下半年收入增长区 间15%-32%，中位数概率大） 3. 催化：联华利华和可口可乐（中国）预计23年放量+高毛利智能冷冻柜起量 概率大+成本下行22Q3后开始显现+RMB贬值利好国外业务毛利率+股权激励 费用影响逐步减弱将大幅增厚利润（股权激励费用22年预计5500万，23年2600 万）。（以上因素将大幅增加今明两年业绩弹性） 4. 当前市值81亿，2022和2023年归母净利润预计3.46亿和5.26亿，对应PE分 别24.6和16.2x。如果2023给予25x-30x估值，对应市值132亿~158亿，股价上 涨空间63%~95%。（具体给多少倍估值，因人而异） 5. 很多投资者担忧未来国内外需求，看看客户怎么说： 联合利华：Ice cream underlying sales grew high single-digit driven by strong growth in the out-of-home business which landed double-digit price and volume growth. In-home sales were slightly up, although volumes declined in Europe and North America where markets contracted as a result of some post-Covid channel switching by consumers. 冰淇淋基础销售额增长高个位数，主要得益于户外业务的强劲增 长，实现了两位数的价格和销量增长。 家庭销售略有上升，尽管欧洲和北美的 销量下降，由于消费者在 Covid 之后的一些渠道转换，市场出现收缩。 We are making significant investments in our supply chain networks in our priority markets. And we're also investing to increase capacity for premium ice cream in Europe and in North America. 我们正在优先市场中 对我们的供应链网络进行大量投资。 我们还在投资以增加欧洲和北美优质冰淇 淋的产能。 百事可乐：In terms of investment in the back half, we have some investment in the back half that was planned for. The way that we're collectively trying to run the company is to build sustainable results over a long period of time, and that means you're constantly balancing delivering the near-term while making sure that you're building capability for next year and the year after that and the year after that. So, I think we have the right balance on that right now, and we'll see as the results come in whether we need to make adjustments to that. But we think we have the right balance to deliver the results this year and also make the investments to deliver the results for next year. 下半年，我们将 按计划继续投资。 我们共同努力经营公司的方式是在很长一段时间内建立可持 续的成果，这意味着你要不断平衡短期交付，同时确保你正在为明年和 之后的 一年和之后的一年。 但我们认为我们有适当的平衡来实现今年的成果，并进行 投资以实现明年的成果。 可口可乐：we are watching closely for signs of changing consumer behavior as the year goes on and as the average cost of the consumer basket continues to go up. We expect the consumer environment to be more challenging. And we are preparing accordingly, stepping up our investments, sharpening our resource allocation capabilities and tapping into data to better reach our consumers. 随着时间的推移以及消费者篮子的 平均成本继续上涨，我们正在密切关注消费者行为发生变化的迹象。 我们预计 消费者环境将更具挑战性。 我们正在做相应的准备，加大投资力度，提高资源 配置能力，并利用数据更好地接触我们的消费者。 I think, is reflective of the overarching bias to continue to invest to support the top line and to continue to take actions across the board to mitigate against those inflationary pressures that we're seeing in a number of key areas. 我总体倾向继续投资去支撑我们收入的增长，以并继续 采取行动以减轻我们在许多关键领域看到的通胀压力。 伊利业绩会：未来存量渠道中，伊利会持续通过大力度的冰柜投放，保持并扩 大现有渠道优势。 蒙牛业绩会：冷饮上半年表现好原因（YOY+30%）：品类向上，消费量上涨 （主因产品创新和品质提升）；天气炎热；渠道建设近年有成效（跟对手有一定 距离）。这三个因素未来仍可持续。 6. 投资建议：公司客户是个内卷的行业，饮料和冰淇淋强调所见即所得的消费 场景，更多发生在户外，且不易携带。谁先占据渠道，谁就能获取消费者，从而 形成收入。所以渠道建设是客户收入持续增长的重要因素之一，客户间会相互竞 争，争相投放渠道，从而形成内卷。因为谁不卷，谁就会被淘汰。当前股价，投 资建议：“干”。